Best Nfl Parlay Bets

Parlay betting is one of the favorite forms of wager for NFL gamblers and is the most popular form of wagering besides sides and totals narrowly beating out teasers. For years bettors have tried to hit big against the sportsbooks betting parlays. Some gamblers seem to swear by them while others never go near them.

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Are NFL parlays profitable? What can I do to maximize my edge against the bookmakers in these potentially large payoff but high variance type of bets? I’ll answer these questions and more in this article.

What Are Parlays?

Parlays are single wagers that are linked together, all of which must win for the parlay to be graded as a winner. Parlays are the American equivalent to accumulators, which are widely used in popular European betting markets.

The odds on parlays are greater than individual side or total bets. For instance, a two-team parlay pays +260 and a 3-team parlay +600, and as players add more bets to a parlay their odds continue to increase. Let’s look at an example of a typical three-team parlay on an NFL Sunday:

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts +8 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110)

If I were to risk $100 on this three team parlay I’d have a potential payout amount of $600, good for a $500 profit. All three of the above teams would have to cover for me to win my bet. If two of my picks cover the point spread, but one of them ends in a push, the parlay then goes from three teams to two teams.

If I bet a two-team parlay and push the one of my picks, it normally just becomes a straight bet at -110 at the vast majority of online sportsbooks. In fact, if these are not the rules on two-team parlays at your sportsbook, I’d recommend finding another option because any other scenario, even a no action (refund your stake) is borderline predatory.

True Odds vs. Listed Odds

Parlays, just like every other NFL wager have built in vig for the sportsbooks. Below, we’ve compiled a table of the “true odds” on winning a parlay without the bookmaker’s juice and the typical odds offered at most online sportsbooks.

As you can see, the sportsbook have a considerable edge on bettors with the vig. While it is smaller, but still significant when players bet two or three-team parlays, it gets larger and larger as players add more teams to their bet.

Best Nfl Parlay Bets Week 9

The odds past two and three-team parlays start to get considerably worse and are downright robbery when the bettors hit 7-team parlays.

Calculated Parlays

When a bettor takes a wager that is not the standard -110, the sportsbook will recalculate the parlay to fit the player’s new chosen wagers. This can be when a bettor parlays a side or total with a prop (or other non -110 bet), and though the vig will still be a factor, bettors can usually get a better price on their wager than just going with the standard odds.

For instance, if we add a plus odds bet such as +120 or +130 to other -110 wagers, we will increase our overall parlay potential payout. The increase in odds will vary but sportsbook, but is certainly something NFL bettors should try to utilize.

Parlays Are Normally a Bad Bet

As we can see from the table above, it is clear parlays have a significant bookmakers edge, especially as bettors begin to increase the number of teams. One of the main reasons for the increase in the edge is the risk and variance taken by the sportsbooks if someone should hit one of these bets for massive money. A winning ticket on a 10-team parlay pays out immensely even with the massive edge by the sportsbooks. A $100 wager has potential winnings of $30,000 which is a nice chunk of change for the sportsbooks to payout.

Also, parlays are high odds bets with a low rate of success and will increase variance more so than straight wagers on sides and totals. Also, consider that if you are betting parlays that you’re most likely not getting the best line because you aren’t line shopping.

Sportsbooks are hard to beat, especially in NFL betting where line shopping is vital. When I bet a parlay, I essentially throw line shopping out the window. Sure, I could luck out here and there and get the best numbers on all my games at the same book, but that rarely happens. Finding the best lines available at a variety of books and betting individual wagers is usually a better option.

Tips for NFL Parlays

Even though parlays are generally –EV bets, there are some situations where we can bring the sportsbooks edge down considerably and give ourselves the best chance to beat the book despite the vig.

Don’t Go Over Three

Feel free to examine the table above again as it is quite clear the bookie’s edge gets a lot larger after two and three team parlays. The true odds of +300 for two-team parlays are not far from the offered line of most sportsbooks at +260. For three-team parlays, the true odds of +597 are only slightly off from the +600 offered at most sportsbooks.

These are by far the best options for parlay bettors. As bettors add more teams, the vig continues to increase, making even 4 or 5-team parlays much worse bets than one or two teams. As we get closer towards 10 teams, the odds on parlays are among the worst bets for sports bettors.

Playing With House Money?

When bettors first deposit at a sportsbook they are rewarded with a bonus that usually comes in the form of a freeplay. Since you are essentially playing with house money, your odds will increase on all wagers since you are not staking any of your own money.

Nfl Parlay Cards Sportsbook

Best Nfl Parlay Bets This Week

Depending on the bonus amount, a freeplay may increase your edge on the bookies by 10-20 percent. Receiving plus odds (beating the bookie’s vig) may be possible on a variety of parlay wagers with this rather large added edge.

Correlated Parlays

Correlated parlays are two-team parlays that are essentially two bets on that are likely to win if one of them comes to fruition, at least in the handicapper’s mind.

In the NFL, this might happen when a high scoring team faces an opponent in which they are rather large favorites. The bettor may decide to bet the spread favorite and parlay the over because if he is right about the favored team covering the spread – he figures the game will be high scoring. If the favored team also has a poor defense, the underdog may also contribute a lot of points to the total. This situation can also be used the same way a game that a bettor predicts to be a low scoring affair. These are just examples of the reasoning behind correlated parlays, bettors have a variety of reasons for betting them.

Correlated parlays do not have quantifiable edges and bettors will have to use their own judgment in how a game will shape up. However, if you become adept at betting correlated parlays, it can be one of the only ways to gain an edge on the bookmakers via parlay.

Although, it is also pertinent to note that correlated parlays are sometimes frowned upon by sportsbooks, and many will limit the amount a bettor can wager or disallow them all together from certain accounts.

Best Sportsbooks for NFL Parlays

US-facing sportsbooks’ parlay odds have quite a bit of variation, and depending on the number of teams in the parlay, each book may offer an advantage over another.

Bovada.lv offers the best 4-team parlay odds around at 15/1, and they are also one of the most trusted books for US sports betting dating back a decade. No book comes close to matching Bovada at 15/1 on 4-team parlays. Most other sportsbooks servicing US players offer 12/1 on these bets, making Bovada the play to be for 4-team parlays.

Bookmaker.eu has a slight edge, but one that is worth your while on three-team parlays. While most other books offer 6/1 odds, Bookmaker gives players 6.5/1 on this wager. This is especially significant considering two and three-team parlays have the lowest house edge. Bookmaker’s parent company have been around a long time in the offshore world and they always seem to pay players. For some, that is all that matters.

5Dimes Sportsbook offer competitive odds as well on their parlays and is one of the few sites that allow bettors to parlay proposition wagers, such as player and team props with side and totals. 5Dimes is among the most trusted sportsbooks on the web and is a pioneer in offshore betting.

Sep 20, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during overtime at SoFi Stadium.

Tom Brady will try to become the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl in three different decades when he leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 55 on Sunday. Brady, who won six titles with the Patriots, has won Super Bowls in each of the previous two decades. To win title No. 7 in decade No. 3, Brady and the Buccaneers (14-5) will have to knock off a 16-2 Chiefs team looking to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Super Bowl 55 odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under sits at 56. Before making any 2021 Super Bowl picks or Chiefs vs. Buccaneers parlays, see the NFL best bets from legendary handicapper Hammerin' Hank Goldberg over at SportsLine.

A beloved national treasure, Hammer enters Super Bowl LV on an extended heater: Over the last year-and-a-half, he is an incredible 51-34 on his NFL best bets.

This is the same prognosticator who enjoyed 15 winning seasons in his 17-year ESPN run. In 2017, Hammer competed against 10 top handicappers in the Las Vegas Review-Journal's NFL Challenge and beat them all, finishing 50-29-6 on against-the-spread NFL picks. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Hammer has locked in three confident best bets for Super Bowl 55. If you parlay his picks, you could be looking at an 11-1 payout. You can only see them here.

Top 2021 Super Bowl NFL expert picks

After thoroughly studying the Super Bowl LV line, Hammer is picking the teams to score under 56 points even though these are two of the highest-scoring offenses in the league. He realizes these teams can put up points in a hurry, as Tampa Bay trailed just Green Bay and Buffalo in points per game (30.8) during the regular season, while Kansas City ranked sixth (29.6).

However, the regular season matchup between these teams on Nov. 29 didn't exactly light up the scoreboard, as they combined for 51 points in a 27-24 Chiefs victory. In that game, each team scored below its season average.

History also is on the side of the Under. In 12 previous Super Bowls in which the closing total was at least 50 points, the Under has gone 8-3-1.

How to make 2021 Super Bowl NFL parlays

Hammer, who has inside sources throughout the league, also jumped on one team to 'exploit a weakness' and cover the 2021 Super Bowl spread. He also loves an epic prop bet that pays more than 2-1. You can only see his best bets here.

What are Hammer's top Super Bowl LV picks? And what prop bet pays more than 2-1? Visit SportsLine now to see Hammerin' Hank Goldberg's Super Bowl best bets, all from the legendary handicapper on a 51-34 heater, and find out.