Moneyline Meaning In Betting

For many bettors, placing a moneyline wager is the simplest way to make a bet. This type of wager is as straightforward as they come, asking bettors to determine the straight-up winner of a game or match. Certain sports provide an additional option beyond the classic two-way moneyline. Hedging is a useful strategy even though betting on all sports isn’t the same. Futures wagers are long term bets that use a moneyline. Some individual games use a point spread while betting on other sports may involve a moneyline. A bettor can hedge against any of these types of wagers.

In life, when someone hedges a situation they are limiting their exposure to the downside. In day to day life, someone can hedge many things.

When someone hedges in sports betting they are limiting their exposure to a potential financial loss. Hedging a bet is an advanced strategy used by sports bettors to either reduce the risk of a wager or to guarantee a profit of some kind from a wager.

Similar to middling a wager, hedging is a strategy that involves placing wagers on the opposite side of your original bet. As futures bettting has become more popular, so has hedging. New sports bettors might have heard about the sports betting risk management strategy in mainstream media.

If nothing else, hedging a bet has become a popular discussion point for any occasion when a sports bettor has a futures wager pending that could result in a large win. Hedging a bet is a way to guarantee at least some kind of win.

While there’s mainstream media coverage about hedging a wager, there isn’t much mainstream information on how to hedge a bet.

What is hedging a bet?

Hedging a bet is a strategy in which a bettor will place a second wager against the original bet when they’re unsure that the outcome of a wager will be a win.

Even if a bettor thinks they might win, they could decide to hedge a bet just to be safe and guarantee they walk away as a winner. The win won’t be as large but the additional wager is a way to create some kind of insurance if the original wager loses.

Hedging is a useful strategy even though betting on all sports isn’t the same. Futures wagers are long term bets that use a moneyline. Some individual games use a point spread while betting on other sports may involve a moneyline.

A bettor can hedge against any of these types of wagers. This strategy allows the bettor to walk away as a winner or less of a loser if they choose.

How to hedge a bet

Hedging a bet isn’t difficult. However, the concept isn’t at the forefront of everyone’s mind when placing a wager. Hedging a bet is protecting some kind profit that was — and still may be — possible from an original wager.

Hedging a bet is done by placing a second wager against the original wager that will guarantee that the bettor sees some kind of profit at the end of the event. A bettor can hedge a future bet or hedge individual games. Here’s an example of hedging a futures bet:

Original wager: $100 futures bet on the New York Jets to win the Super Bowl at 60-1.

• Potential win: $6,000 + original $100 wager.
• Hedge: $1,000 wager on Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl at 2-1 when they face the Jets in the Big Game.
• Best result: Jets win the Super Bowl and bettor wins $6,000. The $1,000 hedge on the Rams for safety is a loss. The total win is $5,000 instead of $6,000.
• Hedge win result: Rams win and the bettor wins $2,000. After everything, the $1,000 hedge minus $100 original wager gives a final win of $900.
• Worst result: No hedge and Rams win. $100 wager and the potential $6,000 win is completely lost.

This example shows that a hedge on a futures bet is still a profitable wager. The hedge protects the bettor from losing the entire potential profit from the wager.

Hedging a bet means the original bet isn’t as profitable as it could be. However, winning something is better than losing everything. That’s the purpose of hedging a wager.

This example also shows that everything risked (the original $100 wager and $6,000 potential win) is lost without hedging.

Some bettors don’t mind losing the $100 wager and potential profit. There are other bettors that prefer to walk away with some kind of profit after waiting an entire season.

Other times to hedge a bet

Hedging a futures bet used to be the only time this strategy was discussed. Sports betting trends in the US are changing and so is how bettors use this strategy.

In Play wagering makes it easier to hedge against an existing pre-game wager that looks shaky. In the past, bettors had to wait until the middle of a game to place a halftime wager.

Parlay betting continues to become more popular every year. Bettors are now using the hedging strategy to ensure a win. A bettor will place a hedge on the final game of a multi-leg parlay to ensure some kind of positive result from a wager.

Moneyline Meaning In Betting Odds

Depending on the amount of the original wager, a bettor might choose to hedge a little so they can mitigate a loss. Losing is never fun but losing less is better than losing everything risked.

Hedging a bet is a useful tool for any sports bettor. Gambling on sports does not have to be about winning or losing a wager. There are multiple strategies to use where a bettor can guarantee some kind of profit on certain wagers.

ALSO READ: Sports Betting Lesson: When It’s Smart To Hedge Your Bet

Find the best hedging opportunities at online sportsbooks

Moneyline Meaning In Betting College Football

In sports betting, a moneyline bet is a wager on which team will win a game. Moneylines are the primary wagering option for hockey and baseball, while for basketball and football they are viewed as a secondary alternative to the point spread.

Have you ever heard of moneyline betting? It’s an American term that’s traditionally associated with betting on the major US sports. These wagers are available in other parts of the world too, but they’re typically referred to as win bets. The same principle applies though. When you correctly select which team will win a match, you’ll get paid out at the relevant odds.

We explain how moneyline betting works in a little more detail below. There’s no need to feel overwhelmed, since they’re relatively straightforward. As a result, the strategies for betting moneylines are also rather straightforward. Nonetheless, we provide some useful advice for how to use them effectively.

Moneylines Explained

For the most part, moneylines are used when there are two possible outcomes. For example, if you’re placing a moneyline wager on a basketball game, then you’ll essentially be betting on which of the two competing teams will win. Your two choices will be to either back the favorite or to back the underdog.

For example, let’s say there’s an upcoming basketball game between the Boston Celtics and the Memphis Grizzlies. A bookmaker might offer the following point spread on the game.

If you understand point spread betting, then it will be obvious that the Celtics are the favorites here. For the purposes of a point spread bet, the bookmaker would remove 5.5 points from their total at the end of the game. If you chose to back them, you’d need them to win by six points or more in order to win your point spread wager.

The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are the underdogs. For the purposes of the point spread bet, the bookmaker would add 5.5 points to their total at the end of the game. If you chose to back them, you’d need them to win or lose by less than six points.

The point spread is basically used to create a 50/50 betting proposition. In this example, the Celtics are theoretically just as likely to win by six points or more as the Grizzlies are to lose by less than six points. This is reflected in the odds, which are typically -110 on both sides of the wager. You have to risk $110 for the chance of winning $100.

If a bookmaker offers moneyline betting on the same game, then their market might look similar to this one.

The bets here are no longer a 50/50 proposition. A bet on the Celtics means you have to risk $240 for the chance of winning $100. The odds are lower because you only need the Celtics to win. Since it doesn’t matter how many points they win by, the chances of this happening are obviously higher.

A bet on the Grizzlies means potentially winning $210 for every $100 staked, which is obviously a better return on your money. However, the Grizzlies would need to win the game outright for such a wager to be successful. The chances of this happening are pretty low.

With a negative moneyline, the odds show how much stake is needed to win $100. With a positive moneyline, the odds show how much a $100 stake will pay in winnings. When betting in non-$100 increments, you’ll have to do all of these calculations on your own.

Calculating Moneyline Payouts

We’ve written a whole article on how to calculate moneyline payouts. Anyone interested in learning more about all the formulas and configurations involved should definitely check this article out. Otherwise, you could just follow this quick trick.

When betting on the favorite, simply divide the negative moneyline by 100 to get a decimal. If you were planning to bet on the Celtics in the above example, this would give you 2.40 (ignore the negative). Now all you have to do is divide your stake by that number in order to see what your potential payouts would be. Let’s say you wanted to stake $650. When you divide that number by 2.40, you’d see that your potential payout is $270.83.

When betting on the underdog, the first step is the same. Divide the positive moneyline by 100, which in the case of the Grizzlies in the above example would give you 2.10. Then, multiply your stake by that number to get your potential winnings. $450 multiplied by 2.10 is $945. Essentially, this means if you risked $450 on the Grizzlies, you would stand to win $945.

Finding Value in Moneylines

All moneylines have what is referred to as an implied probability. This is really just a fancy term pertaining to how often a wager needs to win in order to breakeven, but it’s something you need to understand in order to make a profit from betting moneylines.

Calculating implied probability is relatively straightforward, as long as you use the following formula.

Risk is the initial amount staked on a wager, while return is the initial amount staked plus the potential win.

Let’s use this formula to calculate the implied probability of the Celtics winning their game against the Grizzlies. We know the odds are -240, which means we’d have to risk $240 for a total potential return of $340 (the initial stake plus the $100 winnings). So the calculation here is $240 divided by $340. This gives us an implied probability of 0.7059.

Technically, probability should always be a number between 0 and 1. It’s often expressed as a percentage though, which makes things easier for the purposes of betting. 0.7059 converted into a percentage (i.e. multiplied by 100) gives us 70.59%. What this means is that the odds suggest the Celtics have a 70.59% chance of winning. If we believe the Celtics have an even greater chance of winning, then we should back them at odds of -240.

This is basically what finding value is all about. When we think that a wager is more likely to win than the odds suggest, we should place that wager. As long as we’re estimating those chances accurately, we should have no problem making an overall profit.

It’s important to note that finding value isn’t necessarily about betting on what we think will happen. If we applied the above calculations to the Grizzlies at odds of +210, we’d get an implied probability of 32.36%. Backing them would be a wise decision if we believe their chances of winning are higher than 32.36%.

After conducting some research, we gave them a 40% chance of winning. Even though this means we actually think their chances of losing are higher than their chances of winning, we should still back them. We’d be placing a wager with positive expected value, which should be everyone’s goal when betting on sports.

Removing Vig & Shopping Moneylines

Earlier, we explained how the implied probability of -240 is 70.59% and how the implied probability of +210 is 32.36%. Notice these two probabilities total 102.95%. The extra 2.95% is the bookmaker’s advantage. It’s called vig, and it’s basically a commission that they charge customers for placing wagers. By removing the vig, you can see what the fair odds on the game would be.

If the odds are the Celtics at -240 and the Grizzlies +210, what is the fair price without vig? Many assume that because there’s a 30 cents gap between the two lines, we just deduct 15 cents from the favorite and add 15 cents to the underdog. This would give us a fair price of -225 for the Celtics and +225 for Grizzlies, which is incorrect.

To remove vig correctly, we need to divide the total of the two implied probabilities by each individual probability. So, in this case, we need to do the following calculations.

70.59% / 102.95% = 68.57%

32.36% / 102.95% = 31.43%

The two results above are the no-vig probabilities. If you’re sharp, you’ll notice that adding 68.57% and 31.43% up together will give you 100%. The extra 2.95% has been removed, so there’s no more vig. We can now go to our odds converter and enter 68.57% into the implied probability field. This will give us moneyline odds of -218. If we enter 31.43%, we’ll get moneyline odds of +218. The original moneyline market of the Celtics at -240 and the Grizzlies at +210 therefore has no-vig odds of the Celtics at -218 and the Grizzlies at +218.

We explain removing vig, and how this process helps us, in more detail in our article on handicapping the market.

Armed with the knowledge of how to remove vig, it’s now possible to prevent yourself from making the same mistakes that the majority of bettors make. Most bettors understand the importance of line shopping (i.e. comparing the lines and odds at different bookmakers and betting sites). However, if they fail to also understand how moneylines and vig work, then they’re probably going to make wagers where they think there’s positive expected value (+EV), even though there’s not.

For example, imagine a game where the odds were -550 for the favorite and +450 for the underdog. A bettor shopping around for lines might be delighted to see the same favorite offered at -490 and enthusiastically back the team at those odds simply because those are the best odds available. However, if we removed the vig from -550 and +450, we’d see that the fair odds are actually -466 and +466. So, placing a wager at odds of -490 doesn’t actually offer any value.

For reasons hinted at, when shopping odds for what’s expected to be a lopsided game, you need to find significantly better odds on the favorite’s moneyline than on the underdog’s moneyline. This is the only way to make the bet +EV.

Value only exists when the odds are better than the fair price, or when you are confident that a wager has a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. By simply knowing this information, you become more knowledgeable than most recreational bettors who bet moneylines without really knowing how they work.

Moneyline Bonus Strategy

When it comes to sports betting, sites usually offer one of these two bonuses: cash or free plays. When the bonus is cash, there’s no unique strategy outside of the usual sound handicapping required to gain an edge. When the bonus is free plays, however, some additional strategy comes into play.

Please read our article on sports betting bonuses and rewards for more information on how these work.

If you wager $100 cash on odds of +100, you are staking $100 cash to win $100 cash. Your total potential return is $200, which is your initial stake plus your winnings. If you wager $100 free play on +100, however, your total potential return is just the $100 winnings. Whether you win or lose, your free play is used up. Obviously, free play bonuses aren’t worth as much as cash bonuses, so that means it’s up to you to squeeze as much value out of them as possible.

One the best ways to do this is to hedge by using moneyline betting at multiple sites. Let’s use the previous example of the game between the Celtics and the Grizzlies to illustrate how this works.

At a site that offers a free play bonus, you’d bet $100 free play on the Grizzlies at +210. At another site, where you have a cash balance, you bet $150 cash on the Celtics at -240. If the Grizzlies won, you’d win $210 cash from your free play but lose your $150 cash. That’s a profit of $60. If the Celtics won, you’d win $62.51 from your cash bet and lose only your free play credit. That’s a profit of $62.51

Feel free to play around with exactly how much to bet per wager. We just wanted to show you that making a guaranteed profit is doable. Since it’s possible to claim bonuses at a number of different sites as a new customer, and since many sites offer a reload bonus, this strategy is repeatable. The most important thing to remember is this; only bet with reputable sites, like any of the ones we recommend.